How Political Scandals Can Distort Reality

March 9, 2010 by inoljt

In a heated campaign, political scandals can make or break a candidacy. They often cast a shade of suspicion upon a candidate’s activities, with the connotation of wrongdoing or the unethical. Often implicit is the assumption that if only said candidate had done things slightly differently, all this need not happened.

Take Kirsten Gillibrand, the current hard-working Senator from New York. Before entering politics, Ms. Gillibrand used to work as a hard-charging lawyer. Upon being appointed senator, she was criticized for representing tobacco firms during her job as a lawyer.  A New York Times editorial, for instance, skillfully argued that:

She tries to play down her role and suggests that she had no choice. In truth, she had plenty of choice.

Her law firm allowed lawyers to decline work on tobacco cases if they had a moral or ethical objection. It wasn’t simply a matter of working “for the clients that were assigned to her,” as an aide explained. Tobacco duty was optional. She opted in. Others did not.

The editorial goes on to detail the numerous ways in which Ms. Gillibrand “worked closely with company executives.” It is a persuasive argument, a classical political scandal. Why didn’t Ms. Gillibrand just refuse to take the case?

Such was the recent topic at the political website swingstateproject, with several users discussing Ms. Gillibrand’s tobacco connections. One individual posed the same concern as the Times: Ms. Gillibrand should have just refused the case. Then an actual Washington lawyer stepped in:

Well, what the firm “clearly states” might be bullshit……

I’m a lawyer in D.C., and while I’ve never worked in a firm I know a lot of people, including my wife, who do or have worked as attorneys in firms.  A lot of written policy is just bullshit.  Money talks, and money rules.A large law firm often gives its attorneys 4 weeks of paid vacation per year.  Do you know what you call a lawyer who actually uses it?  FIRED.

If you’re a woman, forget about ever suing for sexual harassment, you’ll just be blackballed.

So regarding a policy allowing the right to refuse a particular case, in real life turning a case down can be a career-ender.

This post provides an outline of the context that too often is missing from a political scandal. At first glance, it was entirely possible for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand to voluntarily avoid representing tobacco companies. But “in truth,” as the New York Times might say, the unwritten rules that defined her workplace prohibited it. Reality is often quite different from the world inhabited by the Washington Beltway.

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China’s Coming Problem

March 7, 2010 by inoljt

Many intellectuals like to speculate that China will eventually surpass the United States, perhaps before the end of this century. This argument has almost become conventional wisdom – although twenty years ago they were saying the same thing about Japan (that did not happen).

Nevertheless, it does appear that China will someday become a relatively wealthy country, like its neighbors Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. It will be, in other words, a First-World country – a place that draws individuals from around the world, a place which people dream of living in.

It will be the destination of large immigrant multitudes, ambitious persons yearning for a better life. Then China will be faced with a problem.

These immigrants will look different from most Chinese. They will speak a different language. They will most likely be poor and unaccustomed to the country’s culture. They will present both a challenge and a great opportunity, as immigrants always do.

This is not entirely certain. Japan, after all, constitutes a First-World country which has remarkably few immigrants. But unlike China, Japan is surrounded by ocean all around. China does not have that shield.

In 3,000 years of history China has never dealt with a massive immigrant influx. Its government has no record of handling immigrants. The government does, however, have a consistent record of dealing with people akin to those above: ethnic minorities.

If one were to grade China’s government on its handling of minorities, it probably deserves a D- (F is reserved for genocide). The government’s dealings with minorities have proved a consistent failure, as the riots in Xinjiang this year and Tibet last year attest. China’s government is far better at getting Han Chinese righteously angry than addressing minority grievances.

When China becomes rich and the immigrant floods come pouring in – immigrants who do not even look Asian, let alone Chinese – the challenge will be multiple times harder than Tibet or Xinjiang. Perhaps in several decades a democratic China will be better equipped to handle the challenge. But as of now, the outlook is pessimistic.

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Analyzing Swing States: Virginia, Part 4

March 5, 2010 by inoljt

This is the fourth part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia. It is the second section of two focusing on Northern Virginia, and focuses on analyzing the structural foundation behind NoVa’s Democratic shift.

NoVa: 2006 Senatorial Election; Courtesy of the Washington Post

(Note: Go here for a clearer image of the graphic.)

Demographics

Demographically, Northern Virginia is one of those rare places whose racial composition is representative of America as a whole. In Fairfax County today blacks constitute 9.4% of the population, Hispanics 13.5% (nationally the numbers are 12.3% and 15.1%, respectively). Asians come in at 15.8%, a higher number than the national average.

As has been much noted, Northern Virginia is getting more diverse. In Fairfax County, for instance, the numbers of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians have all increased since the 2000 census – which counted blacks as 8.6%, Hispanics as 11.0%, and Asians as 13.0% of the population.

These changes are especially striking in exurban NoVa. Loudoun County, 2000 was 5.9% Asian and 5.3% Hispanic. Since then those numbers have more than doubled; from 2006-2008, the census estimated Loudoun as 12.3% Asian and 10.1% Hispanic (blacks constituted 7.8% of the county’s population).

Finally, Northern Virginia is very, very, very rich. The median household income in both Fairfax and Loudoun exceeds $100,000; a 2008 census study estimated them as the two wealthiest counties in America (see page 13). More than one-third of individuals over 25 in Arlington County hold graduate degrees, compared with less than 10% of Americans at large. Life expectancy is the highest in the nation.

In many ways, Northern Virginia represents the best America has to offer. As wealthy, diverse, and rapidly growing suburb, it offers the very essence of the American Dream.

The Future

Although Northern Virginia continues become more diverse, it is unclear how much more Democratic it can get. Suburbs rarely give a party more than 60% of the vote, and 65% seems to be the upper limit for Democrats. Given that President Barack Obama won 60.12% in Fairfax County, Democrats appear to be near this line.

On the other hand, the suburban metropolis that does break this rule (the Bay Area) has a lot in common with Northern Virginia. Like NoVa, the Bay Area is rich, diverse, and growing. But the Bay is also composed of a majority of minorities; this will not happen anytime soon in Northern Virginia.

Moreover, Virginia is missing the one piece that would truly make it a Democratic stronghold. Democratic suburbs like NoVa often surround poor, astonishingly Democratic cities. The good news is that NoVa does surround such a city – and that city gave Democrats 92.46% of its vote in 2008. The bad news is that the city’s name is Washington D.C.

All this may not matter, however, if Northern Virginia continues its rapid growth. Today the exurbs in Loudoun and Prince Williams are the main sites of development, while Fairfax County’s growth appears to have slowed down. This translates into many more voters:

As Loudoun and Prince Williams become more diverse, moreover, they are been voting ever more Democratic. In 2000 Loudoun voted Republican by a 8.25% margin; in 2008 it voted Democratic by a 15.22% margin.

If Northern Virginia continues growing at this rate – and voting Democratic by a 3-2 margin – Virginia may eventually change into a Democratic-leaning state. This will probably be balanced out as other Democratic states naturally turn Republican-leaning. Nevertheless, adding NoVa to the old Democratic base leaves the Democratic Party in strong shape. That traditional base will be the subject of the next post.

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Kudos to Mike Huckabee

March 3, 2010 by inoljt

I was recently shifting through old campaign videos on a whim, when I came upon this:

This was in the midst of the Reverend Wright controversy, when Senator Barack Obama was taking heavy criticism for his association with a radical preacher. Fox News was doing what it does best, conservatives all around were happily blasting the presumed Democratic nominee, and the media was delighting in the old game of scandal and mud.

It did not seem that former Governor Mike Huckabee would be any different from other conservatives. A funny, skilled politician he might be – but he was still a politician, just another Republican about to blast Mr. Obama for the party’s gain.

It was most unexpected, then, when Mr. Huckabee said this:

And one other thing I think we’ve gotta remember. As easy as it is for those of us who are white, to look back and say “That’s a terrible statement!”…I grew up in a very segregated south. And I think that you have to cut some slack — and I’m gonna be probably the only Conservative in America who’s gonna say something like this, but I’m just tellin’ you — we’ve gotta cut some slack to people who grew up being called names, being told “you have to sit in the balcony when you go to the movie. You have to go to the back door to go into the restaurant. And you can’t sit out there with everyone else. There’s a separate waiting room in the doctor’s office. Here’s where you sit on the bus…” And you know what? Sometimes people do have a chip on their shoulder and resentment. And you have to just say, I probably would too. I probably would too. In fact, I may have had more of a chip on my shoulder had it been me.

This was a very, very brave and insightful thing to say – and certainly something I did not expect coming from Mike Huckabee. It is very rare in politics to hear analysis as insightful like this. The man shows an understanding of black America that is rarely never heard coming from a Republican, let alone a white Southern one.

If anything, these words remind one of Mr. Obama’s speech on race, which showed a similarly deep understanding of minority grievances. The resentment and hatred generated by the wounds of race often appear alien, frightening to those who have not experienced such discrimination themselves. Almost always this anger does nothing but cause self-destruction, whilst only making racial problems worse. Yet for all this it is real, and it is there – and if not dealt with or understood it will not go away.

Whether it be concerns over the fairness of America’s justice system – which led to his much-criticized pardons – or statements sympathetic to black resentment (such as the one above), Mr. Huckabee appears to emphasize with this resentment in a way very few Republicans do today. Blacks have reciprocated in kind. In the 1998 Arkansas gubernatorial election, for instance, exit polls indicated that 48% of blacks voted for the Mr. Huckabee (he won the race 58.58% to 41.42%). This is unheard of; almost no modern-day Republican has ever gained such support among blacks.

It is all the more impressive that this occurred in the South, where too often Democrats are the party for black people and Republicans are the party for white people. Republicans usually don’t even attempt to gain black support; they generally use blacks as a foil to drum up white support (to be fair, black politicians do the same thing reversed, in even worse ways).

So kudos to Mike Huckabee, for saying something that completely surprised this blogger. Kudos to him, moreover, for saying something that took political courage; statements like these will probably not endear Huckabee to conservatives who accuse him of being a RINO (Republican In Name Only). But at the very least, this statement has made one individual seriously consider voting for him.

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Analyzing Swing States: Virginia, Part 3

March 1, 2010 by inoljt

This is the third part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia. It is the first section of two focusing on Northern Virginia. The fourth part can be found here.

NoVa

A vast and growing suburban metropolis, Northern Virginia has become increasingly important in Virginia politics. There, demographic changes have imperiled Republican dominance of Virginia.

To illustrate the exceptional nature of this movement, compare the two elections below. Here is 2000:

Modified NYT Image

Governor George W. Bush has won Virginia by a comfortable 8.1% margin, carving out the traditional Republican coalition of rural and suburban Virginia. As this picture indicates, Virginia Democrats in 2000 really don’t have a base of support, except perhaps the heavily black southeast parts of the state.

Eight years later, Northern Virginia has transformed:

Modified NYT Image

Before digging into the dynamics of modern NoVa, it is worth exploring its past behavior to gain a sense of context.

A History

Northern Virginia was not always as populous as it is today; well into the twentieth century, it remained a rural (and heavily Democratic) backwater. In the 1940 presidential election, for instance, less than 10,000 people voted in Arlington County.

Growth began in the 1940s, however, driven by an ever-expanding federal government. The inner-ring suburbs in Arlington started expanding first, followed by Fairfax County in the 1950s. Like many other white and wealthy suburbs, Northern Virginia leaned Republican during this era.

Unlike some suburbs, however, Northern Virginia never fell in love with Republicanism. In Fairfax County, Republican presidential candidates only once took more than 65% of the vote (in 1972) – something which would regularly happen in a place like Chesterfield County, a suburb of Richmond.

Change first began in the 1980s, when inner-ring suburbs such as Arlington started voting Democratic. In the 2000 map, one sees Arlington County as the lonely blue bubble to the right of Fairfax County.

By 2000, as the graph above indicates, change was coming to the suburban communities in Fairfax. In 2004 the county voted Democratic by a 7.30% margin, which should have been a warning sign to Republicans. A mere two years later, it powered Democratic candidate Jim Webb to a narrow victory over incumbent Senator George Allen (he won the county by 18.9%). In 2008 Fairfax – well, just look at the map to see what happened in 2008.

In just eight short years, Northern Virginia has turned from a Republican-leaning suburb into a fundamental part of the Democratic base. Virginia has changed from a red state into a purple one, due mainly (but not entirely) to Northern Virginia.

The next post will explore Northern Virginia today – in order to get a sense of how this has happened.

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