The Hillary Clinton Gender Gap

Four years before the 2016 presidential election, and before we even know who is running, some enterprising pollsters have released polls matching Hillary Clinton against an assorted group of potential Republican candidates. Clinton does well; she leads in a number of red states.

In these polls, one interesting constant is the massive gender gap that Hillary Clinton opens up.

Here are as many 2016 polls that I could find. They show the gender gap in hypothetical match-ups between Clinton and various Republicans.

Date State Hillary Clinton (Overall) Hillary Clinton (♀) Hillary Clinton (♂) Republican Gender Gap
25-Apr NH 52 61 42 41 19
25-Apr NH 52 60 43 38 17
23-Apr CO 48 53 41 45 12
23-Apr CO 48 53 42 44 11
19-Apr NC 49 54 43 42 11
19-Apr NC 52 57 46 40 11
19-Apr NY 59 64 53 32 11
11-Apr KY 45 50 40 45 10
11-Apr KY 46 51 41 40 10
3-Apr US 46 51 41 42 10
3-Apr US 49 54 45 43 9
3-Apr US 49 53 46 42 7
3-Apr US 50 53 46 43 7
3-Apr US 46 47 45 43 2
3-Apr US 54 56 52 38 4
3-Apr US 52 57 46 40 11
3-Apr US 52 59 44 41 15
21-Mar FL 53 58 47 40 11
21-Mar FL 56 61 50 40 11
21-Mar FL 54 60 49 41 11
21-Mar FL 51 56 45 40 11
21-Mar FL 52 55 48 41 7
14-Mar PA 47 55 39 42 16
14-Mar PA 54 62 45 36 17
14-Mar PA 55 63 45 38 18
13-Mar PA 52 55 49 37 6
13-Mar PA 52 56 49 40 7
13-Mar PA 55 58 52 38 6
8-Mar MI 51 57 44 37 13
8-Mar MI 52 59 44 41 15
7-Mar US 45 51 38 37 13
7-Mar US 50 56 43 34 13
7-Mar US 49 49 36 42 13
28-Feb WI 52 56 47 38 9
28-Feb WI 51 56 45 43 11
28-Feb WI 54 59 48 41 11
27-Feb KS 42 49 34 47 15
27-Feb KS 42 52 34 50 18
21-Feb MT 42 47 37 50 10
21-Feb MT 44 47 41 51 6
20-Feb NJ 49 60 35 45 25
20-Feb GA 49 54 42 46 12
20-Feb GA 50 55 44 45 11
14-Feb LA 48 56 40 45 16
14-Feb LA 46 54 39 43 15
14-Feb LA 46 52 40 46 12
8-Feb AK 42 47 35 43 12
8-Feb AK 53 60 46 37 14
8-Feb AK 44 49 37 43 12
7-Feb US 49 54 44 43 10
7-Feb US 46 53 38 41 15
7-Feb US 49 54 44 41 10
7-Feb US 50 55 45 44 10
31-Jan TX 45 48 41 43 7
31-Jan TX 50 54 45 42 9
31-Jan TX 46 51 40 45 11
24-Jan MN 44 51 38 38 13
24-Jan MN 50 57 43 37 14
17-Jan FL 49 54 43 44 11
17-Jan FL 50 56 43 46 13
10-Jan US 51 54 47 38 7
10-Jan US 44 52 37 42 15
10-Jan US 51 55 47 37 8
10-Jan US 53 58 48 39 10

Comparatively, in 2012 women gave Barack Obama 55% of the vote, compared to the 45% that he won amongst men. The gender gap in that year was 10 points. In 2008 it was 7 points (Obama won 49% of males and 56% of females). The largest ever gender gap in recorded exit polling occurred in the 2000 presidential election, when Al Gore won only 42% of men but 54% of women.

It appears that Clinton would open a huge gender gap. The largest gender gap in this table (25 points) comes when she goes head-to-head against Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. Christie’s brash style is very popular amongst men but much less so with women.

One point of caution is that the vast majority of these polls come from just one polling firm: Public Policy Polling (PPP). It’s possible that this gender gap is simply due to a mistake in the way PPP is polling. Interestingly, the two results with the lowest gender gaps (of two and four points) came from a national poll by McClatchy-Marist. So take caution in interpreting these results.

Nevertheless, as potentially America’s first female president, Clinton appears to be able to count strongly on the support of women.

P.S. Since the full table was too wide for WordPress, I took out a couple of sections. The full table is below.

Date Polling Firm State Hillary Clinton (Overall) Hillary Clinton (Women) Hillary Clinton (Men) Republican Candidate Gender Gap
25-Apr Public Policy Polling New Hampshire 52 61 42 41 19
25-Apr Public Policy Polling New Hampshire 52 60 43 38 17
23-Apr Public Policy Polling Colorado 48 53 41 45 12
23-Apr Public Policy Polling Colorado 48 53 42 44 11
19-Apr Public Policy Polling North Carolina 49 54 43 42 11
19-Apr Public Policy Polling North Carolina 52 57 46 40 11
19-Apr Quinnipiac New York 59 64 53 32 11
11-Apr Public Policy Polling Kentucky 45 50 40 45 10
11-Apr Public Policy Polling Kentucky 46 51 41 40 10
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 46 51 41 42 10
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 49 54 45 43 9
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 49 53 46 42 7
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 50 53 46 43 7
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 46 47 45 43 2
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 54 56 52 38 4
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 52 57 46 40 11
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 52 59 44 41 15
21-Mar Public Policy Polling Florida 53 58 47 40 11
21-Mar Public Policy Polling Florida 56 61 50 40 11
21-Mar Public Policy Polling Florida 54 60 49 41 11
21-Mar Quinnipiac Florida 51 56 45 40 11
21-Mar Quinnipiac Florida 52 55 48 41 7
14-Mar Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 47 55 39 42 16
14-Mar Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 54 62 45 36 17
14-Mar Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 55 63 45 38 18
13-Mar Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania 52 55 49 37 6
13-Mar Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania 52 56 49 40 7
13-Mar Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania 55 58 52 38 6
8-Mar Public Policy Polling Michigan 51 57 44 37 13
8-Mar Public Policy Polling Michigan 52 59 44 41 15
7-Mar Quinnipiac National 45 51 38 37 13
7-Mar Quinnipiac National 50 56 43 34 13
7-Mar Quinnipiac National 49 49 36 42 13
28-Feb Public Policy Polling Wisconsin 52 56 47 38 9
28-Feb Public Policy Polling Wisconsin 51 56 45 43 11
28-Feb Public Policy Polling Wisconsin 54 59 48 41 11
27-Feb Public Policy Polling Kansas 42 49 34 47 15
27-Feb Public Policy Polling Kansas 42 52 34 50 18
21-Feb Public Policy Polling Montana 42 47 37 50 10
21-Feb Public Policy Polling Montana 44 47 41 51 6
20-Feb Quinnipiac New Jersey 49 60 35 45 25
20-Feb Public Policy Polling Georgia 49 54 42 46 12
20-Feb Public Policy Polling Georgia 50 55 44 45 11
14-Feb Public Policy Polling Louisiana 48 56 40 45 16
14-Feb Public Policy Polling Louisiana 46 54 39 43 15
14-Feb Public Policy Polling Louisiana 46 52 40 46 12
8-Feb Public Policy Polling Alaska 42 47 35 43 12
8-Feb Public Policy Polling Alaska 53 60 46 37 14
8-Feb Public Policy Polling Alaska 44 49 37 43 12
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 49 54 44 43 10
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 46 53 38 41 15
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 49 54 44 41 10
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 50 55 45 44 10
31-Jan Public Policy Polling Texas 45 48 41 43 7
31-Jan Public Policy Polling Texas 50 54 45 42 9
31-Jan Public Policy Polling Texas 46 51 40 45 11
24-Jan Public Policy Polling Minnesota 44 51 38 38 13
24-Jan Public Policy Polling Minnesota 50 57 43 37 14
17-Jan Public Policy Polling Florida 49 54 43 44 11
17-Jan Public Policy Polling Florida 50 56 43 46 13
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 51 54 47 38 7
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 44 52 37 42 15
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 51 55 47 37 8
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 53 58 48 39 10
This entry was posted in 2016 Presidential Election, Clintons, Gender and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to The Hillary Clinton Gender Gap

  1. Brett Heffner says:

    Ohio and Virginia haven’t been polled, but she should be ahead by double digits in both.

  2. Brett Heffner says:

    It seems that Hillary over-performs in the South and under-performs in the Mountain West. Imagine if she really would carry Texas. If she runs, her GOP opponent may fail to receive even 100 electoral votes. Georgia and Arizona look like better red-state ROI’s for her, as tempting as Texas may look.

  3. Women as a group voted Democratic in the past six presidential races, from 1992 through 2012, according to exit polls. The last time they decisively supported a Republican was Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984. The Reagan years were when Americans first began taking note of the “gender gap,” as women’s rights groups emphasized that female support for Reagan in 1980 was narrow while male voters overwhelmingly endorsed him.

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